IPv6: Hello...

I managed to get /20 from APJII/APNIC in 2001. We still have a few portions of them as of now. I remembered back in the end of 2000, all people were talking about IPv6. Everybody was so affraid that the IPv4 was not able to cope with the higher demand of the internet booming. In every seminar, course, event, people were so excited predicting about when the booming of IPv6 will be. Some predicted it would happen in 2003. But the fact? It didn't. In a seminar held by APJII in 2002, some local experts here predicted that the booming of IPv6 in Indonesia would be around 2005. Still now we almost at the end of year 2005. Nothing has happened.

However, I heard that there are a few development locally. Some has tried to experiment with IPv6. And it was a success. But still, I don't see a movement toward using it comercially.

The big question is WHY? Why people do not embark on IPv6 in comercial point of view. I think the answers among others are the following:
(1) There is no compelling reason to use for most of ISPs. As long as ISPs can purchase IPv4, then they will use it and forget about IPv6. The question is how long will it take for IPv4 to run out? People predicts in 2003, then in 2004, then in 2005.
(2) Many work-arround technology has emerged such as PAT and NAT. For corporate requirements, having 3 to 5 Public IP addresses are more than enough. Those IPs can be used to address the Web Server, and Email Server. The rest can be used for Proxy or NAT gateways.
(3) Many network equipments are still using IPv4. If using IPv6 is mandatory then the upgrading cost for these old equipments would be significant. Not only that. Upgrading people skill would also incurs significant cost.

Having such limitation, then when the IPv6 can fly?